David Lereah
David Lereah
David Lereah is the President of Reecon Advisors, Inc., a real estate advisory and information company located in the Washington, DC area. Lereah was previously an Executive Vice President at Move, Inc. and before that, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors. Lereah served as the NAR's spokesman on economic forecasts, interest rates, home sales, mortgage rates, as well as other policy issues and trends affecting the United States real estate industry. Lereah was also the Chief Economist for...
both earlier expected half interest mortgage rates records rise sales second slower year
Not only have mortgage interest rates declined, but an expected rise in the second half of the year will be slower than in earlier projections. As a result, we now expect to set records for both existing- and new-home sales this year.
coming continues cooling economy expect job markets pick though worry
Some of the cooling is coming from non-boom markets such as Detroit, where there are job problems. I do worry about those markets if the economy continues to slow, though we do expect the economy to pick up in the first quarter.
expected sooner three
We got to 6.6 sooner than I expected. I hadn't expected that for two or three months.
expected good health housing modest sales volume year
A modest downtrend to a sales volume that is expected to be the second-best year ever in 2006 will be good for the long-term health of the housing sector.
activity current eight expected good health higher home housing modest months pace remains sales strong volume year
The current pace of home sales activity remains historically strong - only eight months have had a higher sales pace. A modest downtrend, to a sales volume that is expected to be the second-best year ever in 2006, will be good for the long-term health of the housing sector.
activity deal great picked regions
The nearby regions picked up a great deal of activity very quickly.
best housing recent year
So, 2005, when we look back, was the best year in housing in recent memory, probably of all time.
annual area biggest increase metro
This is the biggest annual home-price increase in any metro area on record.
bit coincide coming demand factors interest job lower mortgage performance positive powerful rates recent record together
A new record is a bit unexpected, but so is the performance of mortgage interest rates which have been lower than forecast. When we look at recent job gains, we see all the positive factors coming together to coincide with a powerful demographic demand for housing.
egg goes interest middle mortgage nest reduced retirement taking value whether
You're going to be taking away from Middle America. Everyone, whether you use the mortgage interest deduction or not, the value goes down. You've just reduced the retirement nest egg for everyone.
brakes hot tapping
The slowdown amounts to a tapping of the brakes on a hot market.
buyer census changed data definition determine examining homes investment larger mostly number second share shift toward vacation
Our definition of second homes has changed with the buyer shift toward investment property, ... In examining Census data to determine the number of investment units, we see that second homes are a much larger share than the conventional mind-set of them being mostly vacation homes.
appreciation good highest home interest level modest mortgage news quarter rates record sales seen since slowing strong sustained third
Mortgage interest rates were at the highest level since the third quarter of 2003. At the same time, we've seen strong double-digit appreciation in home prices, so a modest slowing from record sales was to be expected. The good news is that home sales are being sustained at historically high levels.
current home lower sales sustained
Right now, home sales are a little lower than projected, but they can be sustained around current levels.