David Kelly
David Kelly
Late Irish actor who audiences remember for playing Grandpa Joe on Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. He gained additional fame for his roles in Walking Ned, Stardust, Into the West, and The Jigsaw Man.
ProfessionMovie Actor
Date of Birth11 July 1929
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One thing that's clear is that the Fed is determined to still seem balanced. The minutes will reflect a little more inflation concern and a little more concern about the economy but no deviation from the measured pace.
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Even if consumers pull back a bit, just rebuilding those inventories will add a lot of growth. We will see a shift to business spending from consumer spending in the fourth quarter, and when that occurs, it will be quite healthy.
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Reading the minutes carefully, I don't think it really changes my view or the market's view of where the Fed was.
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There's more and more pressure on campground owners to sell to developers. It's getting harder to find a campground close by. The closest campground to Tampa is about 10 miles outside of town.
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I believe the Fed needs to wean the economy off the morphine drip of low interest rates before it gets hooked.
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Nothing about what they said today is surprising -- they changed the minimum number of words (from their last statement). We're still waiting for confirmation (of a recovery in) the labor market.
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One of the biggest upward revisions was to investment spending on equipment, exactly the area we're worried about, ... That grew marginally, and that's the start of something.
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What generally happens is, during the first year of economic expansion, we see more productivity growth than job growth, and that changes as you go into the second year. We may be on the cusp of that.
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The reason spending dropped in January was a big fall in auto sales. I don't think this tells us much that's new -- it's consistent with an economy still growing in second or third gear.
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We saw companies push up output strongly without increasing labor costs at all. As orders come in, they will have to increase their total employment. Unless economic growth slows very rapidly, the unemployment rate should begin to move down in the next few months.
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For example, we have all of these wireless carriers with overlapping systems, and that's clearly inefficient, ... Our living standards go up when we eliminate such inefficiencies.
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It's pretty tough if you run a retail business in Manhattan. I'm sure the guys on Fifth Ave will be feeling the pinch because of this to some extent.
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No matter how much gas is or how the stock market is doing, we always seem to do fairly well because of that dream people have. It just seems that that one dream just can't be denied.
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What's remarkable is how little the statement changed. The one thing that is important is that the Fed has always, over the past few years, tipped its hand. But they have still not indicated that they are close to ending their tightening.