David Joy
David Joy
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The trade deficit will be couched in terms of outsourcing. If you look at trade itself, it doesn't capture a lot of attention until it spills into the question of losing jobs overseas,
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Both candidates seem to be proposing roughly equal deficits over time. Both plan on cutting it in half but doing it by growing the economy as opposed to lowering the dollar amount.
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Bonds clearly got a boost from the flight to safety. But looming on the horizon are the consumer and producer price reports and the CPI is going to be the most important,
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The fact that long-term rates didn't rise in some sense offset some of the impacts of the higher costs of energy. They fought to a draw, and as a result the markets weren't affected by either interest rates or energy.
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It doesn't take a lot of money moving into these stocks to move them higher. But valuations will put a cap on how far things will go.
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Part of the reason we see inflation rising next year is the dollar. Clearly, there is upward pressure on prices because of the falling dollar.
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Some of the tax proposals that are part of the Democratic platform do call for the rollback of dividend tax cuts. That has a direct impact on the stock market.
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We'll see what impact, if anything, the hurricane had on them, and it may be a harbinger.
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The persistence of high oil prices can't be lost on the Fed. Consumers have to pay for higher energy even though it's volatile. It is a real cost.
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We'll see if Goldman can keep that string going.
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The labor market is important to the Fed under any circumstances. Once you get rising wage pressure that's when inflation gets intractable.
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The Fed has been the big question mark for the market. I'm afraid the Fed is not going to get out of the way any time soon.
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In the early 1990s, we were coming out of a recession and you typically expect a burst of tech spending. That's what we witnessed last year. That pattern is quite analogous.
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Clearly the far more important factor for tech is the relative strength of the economy. It trumps the dollar situation. But if the dollar improves, it does take the bloom off the rose for some of the sales numbers that companies have reported.