David Greenlaw
David Greenlaw
came certainly dissent evidence sort split
While the dissent came as a surprise, we certainly wouldn't read it as evidence of any sort of a significant split on the FOMC.
consumer resilience shines
The resilience of the consumer really shines through in this data.
continue edge gain lower pace starts though underlying
Even though the pace of starts may continue to edge lower on an underlying basis, we look for about a 6% gain in January.
quite report virtually
Virtually everything else in the report was quite strong.
change eventual language rate represents small step toward
From our standpoint, the change in language represents a small step toward an eventual rate hike.
believe data expect february impact labor market negative quite related since state underlying
Since we believe that the underlying state of the labor market is quite healthy, we would expect any negative weather- related impact on the February data to be recouped in March.
situation
You have a much, much different situation today.
answer believe consumers money pay wondering
What everyone was wondering was where consumers were getting the money to pay for these things, and I do believe we got part of that answer today.
ahead events fed figuring friday key market numbers price producer wednesday
The producer price numbers on Wednesday and the productivity number on Friday are the most important events we have ahead of the Fed meeting. There's still some uncertainty in the market about what the Fed will do and those numbers will be key to figuring that out.
attention caught concern high housing market obviously state
There is obviously a lot of concern about the state of the housing market right now. One thing that caught a lot of people's attention was this nine-year high in unsold homes.
core costs degree difficult economy generate great high inflation labor news rise showing sustained unit
This is great news on the inflation front. It will be very difficult for the economy to generate any sustained rise in core inflation with unit labor costs showing such a high degree of restraint.
december growth overall retail sales
Overall retail sales growth in December should be robust.
bit excuse fed gives headline increase itchy number odds rather sooner trigger
If the Fed has a bit of an itchy trigger finger, the ECI headline number gives them the excuse to go sooner rather than later. It does increase the odds of a tightening on Aug. 24.
associated energy evident fourth hit impact negative quarter shock though
The negative impact associated with the energy shock will be more evident in the fourth quarter even though it hit in September.