David Blitzer
David Blitzer
hit knew last late low number oil time
This was one time hit from oil prices. We knew oil had to go up from an unsustainably low number late last year.
hit knew last late low number oil time
This was one time hit from oil prices, ... We knew oil had to go up from an unsustainably low number late last year.
invest later majority managers missed months people run silly stock stocks talking trading vast
Clearly, if we take a stock out at $2, and 6 months later it's trading at $10, we look silly and people who invest in the index will say, 'I missed a five-times gain'. But in talking to people who run index funds, the vast majority of managers say take the low-priced stocks out,
absolutely asian early economy hit impact late spring
The economy right now is absolutely fantastic, but I think the Asian impact is still to come. The big hit is probably to come in late spring or early summer.
bullish difficult everybody fantastic feels indeed looks market sentiment stock thinks wrong
The stock market suggests that there is fantastic bullish sentiment -- everybody feels good, looks good, thinks wonderfully of this economy, and indeed it is very difficult to say anything wrong about this economy,
cut fed half market positive quarter realm stock within yawn
The stock market reaction, if they cut a quarter point, probably will be as much a yawn as anything else. If the Fed would go for half a point, which is within the realm of possibility, I think it would get a positive reaction.
august clearly gm plus quarter rebound second soft until weakness work
The second quarter was clearly a soft quarter, there was a lot of weakness in manufacturing. I think we'll see a rebound but it won't show up until the August numbers. Getting GM back to work will be a big plus in getting things going again.
add difficult pressure pricing profit raise together
There's not a lot of pricing flexibility, there is a little more upward pressure on wages, and when you add that all together it can be very difficult to raise profit margins.
points
there's nothing here that really points to any near-term inflationary dangers.
cutting danger inflation main point risk slow
From their point of view, there's no inflation danger. The main risk is to slow growth, and they should keep cutting rates.
buy food home oil people
People will stockpile food, home heating oil if they can buy it.
agreement calculate corporate earnings everybody instead people problem three virtually
The problem is that instead of having one way to calculate corporate earnings that everybody understands, we have two or three methods. And the one that most people use, there is virtually no agreement at all about what it means.
bet next repeated
The bet is that this will not be repeated next month.
aware caused change earnings estimated fully investors
A change of 7% or 8% in estimated earnings for the S&P 500 is significant, especially if investors are not fully aware of what caused the change.