David Ader
David Ader
champagne employment events fed few focus full official remaining return turned week
The market's saunter into 2006 continues, with just a few remaining events before the champagne and confetti. We have turned our focus to the first week of '06 -- in which we will see official Fed commentary, the employment report, and the market's return to full force.
benefit data extend gains impetus
Without the benefit of data or issuance, the impetus to extend those gains is limited.
bullish critical market people push rally short willing
Without more critical information, people are not going to be willing to push it. I don't think the market has been short enough or bullish enough to push this rally further.
against cannot core figures outer rate revision solace takes
We cannot take solace from these figures as the upward revision to the core PCE deflator takes the year-on-year rate to 1.9 percent, up against the Fed's outer boundary.
buying commitment dip larger seen
We've seen dip buying and think that's a precursor to larger commitment into supply.
demand receiving
There are some receiving demand on the back of the supply.
action buying deem fed impact instead last lost market motivation panic view
We deem this action representative of a market that has lost the flurry of last week's panic buying and instead is rethinking its view as to the near-term motivation of the Fed and the impact of Katrina.
anxious buyers improved price yields
We're anxious fence-sitters. Yields are back to where we like them -- and we'll like them more if we see more buyers and improved price action.
curve follow great
It is going to follow what the nominal (Treasury) curve is doing. It's not that great of a surprise.
given global insight monetary song swan
Given this is a swan song for Greenspan, I think it's going to be one more of these global topics. There will be very little if anything that will give us any insight into monetary policy.
action confuse endgame hands magnitude positions price square strong today
Today is about positions unwinding and we should not confuse price action with new, fundamental, information. When unwinds of magnitude take place, they have an endgame -- those positions will square and/or strong hands will dominate.
amount enormous hit influence
We are getting hit with an enormous amount of supply. That is having an exaggerated influence.
bit curve excited flat further moved near open pancake year yields
While the curve has moved to flat as a pancake to a bit inverted and yields open the year near 4.38%, we are not excited about further inversion just yet.
absent backed buy emerged expected finally money near step supporting temporary view yields
The suspiciously absent real money buyers, that were expected to step in and buy as yields backed up, have finally emerged -- supporting our view that we are near a temporary floor.