Dana Telsey
Dana Telsey
Dana Telseyin New York City, New York) is the CEO and Chief Research Officer of Telsey Advisory Group. She is an American consultant and top-ranked equity research analyst covering the retail industry. Telsey has been ranked for 13 years, and was the number one ranked analyst by Institutional Investor Magazine for seven years...
certainly changed christmas companies continue good overall pick retail sales season seen stocks struggling
Projections for the Christmas season really haven't changed very much. While some of the retail stocks certainly have come back a lot, we haven't seen sales overall pick up dramatically. The good companies like the Gap, are still doing very well, while the companies that have been struggling continue to do so.
behind retailers sales
Sometimes when retailers get big same-store sales increases, you have to look behind the numbers.
reaction spring wonder
You also wonder about the reaction to the spring line.
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Hard electronic retailers, like Best Buy, are seeing more of the tax refund dollars than specialty retailers.
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Typically, if rates increase, basically if we get the sense that we're more near the end of the rate increases than the beginning of the rate increases, that would certainly be a positive for our sector. Retail stocks are basically early cycle stocks. And if we get the sense that we are more near the end than at the beginning, the low valuations of these stocks will prove attractive to many investors.
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Basically the economy is sluggish. We are seeing consumers resisting spending and the outlook for the second half of the year is not as bright as it had been. Even Wal-Mart said its second half will not be as strong.
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With Christmas coming on a Sunday, most people feel they can procrastinate a little bit longer because they have until Saturday to finish up their holiday shopping.
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We've had a wide variety of excuses, whether it be Princess Diana's funeral, the weather, El Nino... Bottom line is August was better than planned and it stole a little bit from the month of September.
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It's certainly a boon to the luxury business. That exclusivity has made more people willing to pay full price for merchandise the moment they think they can get it, which has helped the bottom line.
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It's certainly a boon to the luxury business.
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They don't have enough promotional inventories in the stores. They'll only be selling full-price and they're already giving out warnings of negative same-store sales declines in February.
concern earnings estimates
There's concern that earnings estimates will have to be reduced.
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As you can see, Christmas is spread out -- not just among December but among January as well. Promotions certainly helped to drive those sales and you can see what the consumer is looking for. It all depend on price.
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You're getting quarterly reports and news about August sales this week, and retail stocks have also been beaten down, so you're seeing some strength in the sector. Retailers have managed their second half of the year well, which is positive for back-to-school and Christmas sales, both crucial for the sector.