Chuck Hill
Chuck Hill
time
Now we'll see if this time it's going to be different.
absorb built lines time
We built too many fiber-optic lines to nowhere. It will take some time to absorb that.
changes companies earnings far fourth gains growth taking third time
There's big changes taking place. By the time we get to the third quarter, most of these companies are going to be significantly in the black, as far as earnings growth goes. And in the fourth quarter, the earnings gains are going to be huge.
biggest concern difficult great guidance percent surprises third time
There were no great surprises and the biggest concern is the guidance going forward. We still think it's going to be a difficult time ? we're already down 8.3 percent for the third quarter.
bit despite earnings fourth good growth highest less match negative peak percent pessimism quarter running seen since time
Overall, the quarter is going to be excellent. We think it will match the 23.6 percent earnings growth for the first quarter, which was the highest we'd seen since back in the fourth quarter of 1993. It's going to be a very good quarter for earnings despite all the pessimism here during the peak time of pre-announcements. But pre-announcements are running a little bit less negative than they usually do so I think it's a bit of an over-reaction.
addition capital consumer current faster memory needed pc products ran running several slowing time upgrade
In addition to a slowing of consumer and capital spending, it may be that current PC products are running out of gas. I haven't even thought about upgrading my PC for several years. You used to have to upgrade all the time because you ran out of memory or needed faster processing.
april expect lower numbers somewhere week
We expect the numbers to be somewhere lower by the week of April 13, when all the (quarterly earnings) announcements will have been made.
certainly looking negative
We certainly think it will end up in negative territory. I think you've got to be looking at 2002 for any recovery.
decline estimate percent reporting
We're doing about what we expected. Going into the reporting season, the estimate were for a decline of 18 percent and we said we thought we'd end up about down 15 but may end up down 16.
earnings growth revenue slowing
The story on slowing earnings growth and revenue growth is not over.
almost certainly earnings next turn
Earnings are bottoming out and will almost certainly turn up in the next quarter.
earnings focus judgment short term
Quarterly earnings are still made up to be too important, in my judgment. There's too much focus on the short term by far.
add earnings estimates last number percent
Of the 59 percent of the S&P 500 that has reported, earnings are down 18.1 percent. If we add that number to estimates for the rest, we're down 22.2 percent from last year.
negative people season upset
Every quarter, people get all upset when the pre-announcement season is on and it always has a negative bias. I don't think there is anything to be alarmed about.