Chuck Hill
Chuck Hill
changes companies earnings far fourth gains growth taking third time
There's big changes taking place. By the time we get to the third quarter, most of these companies are going to be significantly in the black, as far as earnings growth goes. And in the fourth quarter, the earnings gains are going to be huge.
biggest concern difficult great guidance percent surprises third time
There were no great surprises and the biggest concern is the guidance going forward. We still think it's going to be a difficult time ? we're already down 8.3 percent for the third quarter.
economy obviously showing signs slowing third
There are obviously signs the economy is slowing but it's not showing up yet in earnings, and probably won't in the third quarter.
earnings estimates percent second third
The estimates are for earnings to be down 50 percent in the second quarter, 37 percent in the third quarter, and 12 percent in the fourth.
april expect lower numbers somewhere week
We expect the numbers to be somewhere lower by the week of April 13, when all the (quarterly earnings) announcements will have been made.
certainly looking negative
We certainly think it will end up in negative territory. I think you've got to be looking at 2002 for any recovery.
decline estimate percent reporting
We're doing about what we expected. Going into the reporting season, the estimate were for a decline of 18 percent and we said we thought we'd end up about down 15 but may end up down 16.
earnings growth revenue slowing
The story on slowing earnings growth and revenue growth is not over.
almost certainly earnings next turn
Earnings are bottoming out and will almost certainly turn up in the next quarter.
earnings focus judgment short term
Quarterly earnings are still made up to be too important, in my judgment. There's too much focus on the short term by far.
add earnings estimates last number percent
Of the 59 percent of the S&P 500 that has reported, earnings are down 18.1 percent. If we add that number to estimates for the rest, we're down 22.2 percent from last year.
negative people season upset
Every quarter, people get all upset when the pre-announcement season is on and it always has a negative bias. I don't think there is anything to be alarmed about.
earnings growth heading market stock
We really thought growth would taper off heading into 2000 and it hasn't. It isn't going to be earnings that prick the stock market bubble.
beginning bit confession disturbing early expect higher negative normal normally number running somewhat
Well, it's still the beginning of the so-called confession season, but it is a little disturbing in that we're running somewhat higher than the normal number of pre-announcements that we would expect this early. And we're running a little bit more negative than we normally do at this early stage.