Chuck Hill
Chuck Hill
cast earnings quarter season strong
We think a pretty strong earnings season for the quarter is pretty much cast in stone.
earnings fourth positive quarter
On the earnings front, there's not much on the positive side. ...The fourth quarter is going to be a disaster.
companies easy excellent growth last overseas quarter stronger
It's going to be an excellent quarter for earnings. A lot of these companies will have some very easy comparisons over last year, which will help, but stronger growth in the U.S. and overseas is really going to make a difference, as well.
negative quarter record terms
We still are going to suffer. We are well on our way to a record quarter in terms of negative preannouncements.
deviation expected percent quarter
Any deviation from that 15 percent for the quarter is expected to be lower, not higher.
bit despite earnings fourth good growth highest less match negative peak percent pessimism quarter running seen since time
Overall, the quarter is going to be excellent. We think it will match the 23.6 percent earnings growth for the first quarter, which was the highest we'd seen since back in the fourth quarter of 1993. It's going to be a very good quarter for earnings despite all the pessimism here during the peak time of pre-announcements. But pre-announcements are running a little bit less negative than they usually do so I think it's a bit of an over-reaction.
april expect lower numbers somewhere week
We expect the numbers to be somewhere lower by the week of April 13, when all the (quarterly earnings) announcements will have been made.
certainly looking negative
We certainly think it will end up in negative territory. I think you've got to be looking at 2002 for any recovery.
decline estimate percent reporting
We're doing about what we expected. Going into the reporting season, the estimate were for a decline of 18 percent and we said we thought we'd end up about down 15 but may end up down 16.
earnings growth revenue slowing
The story on slowing earnings growth and revenue growth is not over.
almost certainly earnings next turn
Earnings are bottoming out and will almost certainly turn up in the next quarter.
earnings focus judgment short term
Quarterly earnings are still made up to be too important, in my judgment. There's too much focus on the short term by far.
add earnings estimates last number percent
Of the 59 percent of the S&P 500 that has reported, earnings are down 18.1 percent. If we add that number to estimates for the rest, we're down 22.2 percent from last year.
negative people season upset
Every quarter, people get all upset when the pre-announcement season is on and it always has a negative bias. I don't think there is anything to be alarmed about.