Christopher Thornberg
Christopher Thornberg
Christopher Thornberg is the Founding Partner of Beacon Economics, LLC, an independent research and consulting firm. Under his leadership, Beacon Economics became known as one of the earliest and most adamant forecasters of the subprime mortgage market meltdown in 2007...
fragile
Let's put it this way: We will be in a fragile economy.
debate general hard landing mean trend
Things are still hot, but the trend is clear. The only debate now is how hard a landing there will be and what will it mean for the general economy.
maybe pay people prices today
Prices people pay today will be about the same in 2011, maybe 2012.
bubble dropping fixed housing huge lots market pop prices stock
We say it's a bubble, but a housing bubble does not pop like a stock market bubble, ... A stock market bubble, when it pops, lots of market activity, prices dropping rapidly. Housing prices don't drop that way because there's a huge fixed cost. You don't day-trade your home.
crazy financing gotten people point prices
You got to think that this thing is going to end, eventually, one way or another. Prices have gotten to the point that, even with all the crazy financing out there, people still can't get into the market. It's just that over the top.
appreciation bonus consumers expect likely longer pull realize subsidize
When consumers realize they can no longer expect that appreciation bonus to subsidize their consumption habits, they will very likely pull back on spending.
building current drive equity existing fast fixing homes housing interest mention order per spend tend
Building 200,000 new residences per year, not to mention the current interest in fixing up existing homes in order to spend new housing equity as fast as possible, will tend to drive this (employment).
bubble housing seen size strange
We've never seen this size of a housing bubble before, so in a sense we're in kind of a strange place right now.
nation oil
We as a nation are not as oil dependant as we were back then.
catch fall flat home jobs local looking lose prices rare seven six unless
It's pretty rare for home prices to fall unless you lose a lot of jobs in the local area. What you're really looking at is prices going flat for six or seven years while the fundamentals catch up.
agents building estate financing people stores
It's people building houses, ... It's people financing the building of houses. It's people working in the stores that are furnishing those houses, and of course, the real estate agents who are making this all happen.
deal issue nobody wants
It's such a contentious issue that nobody wants to deal with it.
aware business cause economic pain people point
It's business delayed, not business canceled. They make people aware of what's going on, but it doesn't cause any economic impact. It's a pain in the butt, but they get their point across.
behaving difficult figure
It's an irrationally behaving market. It's very difficult to figure out where it is going to go.