Charles Lieberman
Charles Lieberman
clearly despite economy however interest market rates rise stock taking view
Overwhelmingly, I think the stock market is taking the view that the economy is doing well despite the rise in interest rates, and they clearly don't think that however much interest rates go up, that it is going to impair growth, or impair profitability.
built currently expected forward increase interest rates suspect
I suspect that interest rates must increase considerably more than is currently expected or has been built into forward markets.
answer confident fed interest markets number pull question quite raise rates trigger whether
Had this number been very high, the markets would have been quite confident the Fed would raise rates. The real question is whether they are going to pull the trigger on interest rates again, and my answer is no.
bond driven interest market oil rates today
I think part of what has driven the market today are fluctuations in oil and interest rates and the bond market.
business coming growth mainly number percent rate stage time year
That's the time when a big number is most likely, mainly when we're coming out of a recession. At this stage of the business cycle, to be getting a 5 percent growth rate in productivity for a year is really very impressive.
economy equity fed fighting hike market people rates recognize
The economy is doing a lot better than people recognize and therefore, the Fed may have to hike rates more than they expect. The equity market is fighting the Fed.
above economy erosion evident growing level low rate trend
The economy is still growing above trend as evident by erosion of the unemployment rate and the low level of unemployment claims.
appear armed companies fatter goods inevitable items obvious people prices produce spending
Inflation, on the surface, does not appear to be a concern, but it's obvious that prices for some items are rising, ... It's inevitable that when people are armed with fatter paychecks and when companies are spending more to produce goods and services, prices are going to rise.
absolutely believe change inflation near number reason soft time
Inflation has been very soft for a number of years, and there's absolutely no reason to believe that's going to change any time in the near future.
concerned consumers curtail falling fed hurt market miss small stock troubled
The Fed is not going to be troubled by a small miss (in the CPI). I don't think it's that big an issue, ... They're concerned that a falling stock market could hurt consumers sufficiently to curtail spending. That could be a problem.
bit consumer difficult financing fourth quarter spending surprising
It wouldn't be surprising if there was a little bit of a pullback in consumer spending in the first quarter as well because of the zero-percent financing in the fourth quarter, which makes for a very difficult comparison.
gains higher numbers offset wage
As long as the productivity numbers are very good, the higher wage gains can be offset by higher productivity gains,
activity awful december doubt elevated housing mild start surprised winter
No doubt housing activity was elevated over the winter because of very, very mild weather. One housing start in Syracuse, N.Y., in December is an awful lot. So we shouldn't be surprised by a big fall-off.
claims fact low
The fact that claims are low is very comforting.