Charles Lieberman
Charles Lieberman
clearly continue costs economic economy fed growth increase labor material problem rapid seen somewhere though ultimate
We continue to see very rapid economic growth which has been a problem for the Fed all along. We have not seen a material increase in labor costs and that's what I think is going to be the ultimate problem in the economy somewhere down the road, though clearly it's not imminent.
costs inverse relation rise tend wage
As productivity slows, wage costs tend to rise -- one has an inverse relation to the other.
bit consumer difficult financing fourth quarter spending surprising
It wouldn't be surprising if there was a little bit of a pullback in consumer spending in the first quarter as well because of the zero-percent financing in the fourth quarter, which makes for a very difficult comparison.
business coming growth mainly number percent rate stage time year
That's the time when a big number is most likely, mainly when we're coming out of a recession. At this stage of the business cycle, to be getting a 5 percent growth rate in productivity for a year is really very impressive.
bond driven interest market oil rates today
I think part of what has driven the market today are fluctuations in oil and interest rates and the bond market.
august economy fed hoped investors puts
Fundamentally, the economy has not slowed as investors had hoped or the Fed requires. It puts a tightening in August back on the table.
activity awful december doubt elevated housing mild start surprised winter
No doubt housing activity was elevated over the winter because of very, very mild weather. One housing start in Syracuse, N.Y., in December is an awful lot. So we shouldn't be surprised by a big fall-off.
amount chance doctor dosage fed given judgment time
When a doctor administers medicine, he or she makes a judgment about the appropriate dosage in advance. The Fed has to make that judgment, but there's a chance they've already given out the right dosage and just need an appropriate amount of time for it to take effect.
economy fed growth inflation mild pressure pressures relatively relaxed soft solid
Unemployment is sufficiently high, and the economy has just come out of a relatively mild recession, so inflation pressures are relatively soft right now. It will take a while of solid growth before we have upward pressure on inflation, so the Fed can be a little relaxed about it.
carrying good inventory less means process production
That's actually good news. It means we're carrying less inventory and the production process is adjusting.
claims fact low
The fact that claims are low is very comforting.
clearly despite economy however interest market rates rise stock taking view
Overwhelmingly, I think the stock market is taking the view that the economy is doing well despite the rise in interest rates, and they clearly don't think that however much interest rates go up, that it is going to impair growth, or impair profitability.
curve economic economy given growth notion simplistic slow yield
There is this simplistic notion around that because the yield curve is inverted, therefore, economic growth is going to slow down, but ... no consideration is given as to why the economy would slow down.
gains higher numbers offset wage
As long as the productivity numbers are very good, the higher wage gains can be offset by higher productivity gains,