Carl Tannenbaum
Carl Tannenbaum
fiscal inflation negative news rate rates remain trade
After all the negative news about our trade position, our fiscal problems, our currency, our inflation rate and the Fed's credit-tightening program, long-term rates remain very, very low.
albeit begin drift guess later rates
Our guess is that long-term rates will begin to drift up later this year, albeit modestly.
begin bit both economy fed higher influence market performed rates surprised
It has surprised all of us that the economy has performed so strongly, but we think that the accumulated influence of higher rates both in the market and by the Fed will begin to take a little bit of starch out of the economy.
challenged coming consumers energy environment higher interest rates
This is coming in an environment where consumers are being challenged by higher interest rates and energy prices.
act available bite consumer energy money smaller spend taking tax
Energy costs, which act as a tax on consumer budgets, are taking a smaller bite out of consumer pocketbooks. There is, therefore, more money available to spend on other (non-energy) things.
confident dark images survey taken type week
The survey was taken in a dark week immediately after Katrina. The images (in the media) were of the type that don't makes us confident about anything.
bigger chips companies hesitant remain
While companies have bigger stacks of chips to play with, they still remain hesitant to put many of them into the pot.
auto change changes contribute economic growth headline sales share small
While auto sales make up a small share of GDP, they make up a big share of the change in GDP, ... As you see changes in the auto industry, it will contribute to headline economic growth numbers.
auto companies given industry looking might period themselves
We've given the auto industry steroids, and we might be looking at a period of withdrawal as auto companies wean themselves from these stimulants,
bit gotten maybe people property sticker
Frankly, I think that's healthy. Property has gotten so expensive, maybe people are getting a little bit of sticker shock.
economy risk
If anything, we may be at risk for underestimating how well the economy will do this year.
consumers eight housing include inflation initial list next period ring risky six victims
If they have to ring some inflation out of the system, the initial list of victims has to include housing markets. You have a risky period for consumers for the next six to eight months.
clear expecting far fear holiday looking managers purchasing sales
With holiday sales looking a little better than expectations and the Purchasing Managers Index up when we were expecting a decline, it's clear that the fear that many had that we had slowed down too far is unwarranted.
certainty mystery
There is short-term certainty and medium-term mystery for the Fed.