Carl Tannenbaum
Carl Tannenbaum
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Outside of Detroit -- and outside of the gulf region -- there are signs that the economy is still doing very well.
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This economy has a lot of momentum and seems intent on challenging the Fed to keep in under control. Inflation is a real risk here after six years of expansion. The Fed perhaps is taking the first step, a down payment if you will, to try and keep that under control. But it may take more than what we saw yesterday.
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If anything, we may be at risk for underestimating how well the economy will do this year.
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We're nowhere near the same economy as we were in the 1970s. We're more service-based. We're much more energy efficient.
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It has surprised all of us that the economy has performed so strongly, but we think that the accumulated influence of higher rates both in the market and by the Fed will begin to take a little bit of starch out of the economy.
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Hiring was cautious in October. Aside from companies not being able to operate because of the hurricanes, many businesses might have been in a state of suspense as they assessed damage to their operations and to the economy that might have resulted from these storms.
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The hurricane season failed to blow the economy off course.
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We've been able to achieve great things amid great challenges- including the stock market crash of 1987, the bursting of the stock bubble in 2000, two wars and the September 11, 2001, terror attacks. Alan Greenspan might be thought of as our most valuable economic player.
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The pool of available labor is diminishing and worker efficiency is growing more slowly. This adds up to a higher level of pressure on wages, and, by inference, on inflation.
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There are a lot of cross currents out there ... but overall the report suggests the job market is still doing pretty well.
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Our guess is that long-term rates will begin to drift up later this year, albeit modestly.
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While companies have bigger stacks of chips to play with, they still remain hesitant to put many of them into the pot.
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While auto sales make up a small share of GDP, they make up a big share of the change in GDP, ... As you see changes in the auto industry, it will contribute to headline economic growth numbers.
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This is coming in an environment where consumers are being challenged by higher interest rates and energy prices.