Carl Tannenbaum
Carl Tannenbaum
economy risk
If anything, we may be at risk for underestimating how well the economy will do this year.
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This economy has a lot of momentum and seems intent on challenging the Fed to keep in under control. Inflation is a real risk here after six years of expansion. The Fed perhaps is taking the first step, a down payment if you will, to try and keep that under control. But it may take more than what we saw yesterday.
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Outside of Detroit -- and outside of the gulf region -- there are signs that the economy is still doing very well.
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We're nowhere near the same economy as we were in the 1970s. We're more service-based. We're much more energy efficient.
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It has surprised all of us that the economy has performed so strongly, but we think that the accumulated influence of higher rates both in the market and by the Fed will begin to take a little bit of starch out of the economy.
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Hiring was cautious in October. Aside from companies not being able to operate because of the hurricanes, many businesses might have been in a state of suspense as they assessed damage to their operations and to the economy that might have resulted from these storms.
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The hurricane season failed to blow the economy off course.
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Energy costs, which act as a tax on consumer budgets, are taking a smaller bite out of consumer pocketbooks. There is, therefore, more money available to spend on other (non-energy) things.
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The survey was taken in a dark week immediately after Katrina. The images (in the media) were of the type that don't makes us confident about anything.
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While companies have bigger stacks of chips to play with, they still remain hesitant to put many of them into the pot.
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While auto sales make up a small share of GDP, they make up a big share of the change in GDP, ... As you see changes in the auto industry, it will contribute to headline economic growth numbers.
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We've given the auto industry steroids, and we might be looking at a period of withdrawal as auto companies wean themselves from these stimulants,
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Frankly, I think that's healthy. Property has gotten so expensive, maybe people are getting a little bit of sticker shock.
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If they have to ring some inflation out of the system, the initial list of victims has to include housing markets. You have a risky period for consumers for the next six to eight months.