Carl Tannenbaum
Carl Tannenbaum
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All three of the Big Three automakers have been increasing the amount of their production planning, ... We're also seeing a little kick-up in overtime hours. Even if demand tapers off, they'll need to get production going to get inventories to more normal levels.
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We're trained to think that rapid growth after six years of expansion is finally going to kick prices up a little bit, but in fact they're going in the opposite direction,
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There is short-term certainty and medium-term mystery for the Fed.
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With holiday sales looking a little better than expectations and the Purchasing Managers Index up when we were expecting a decline, it's clear that the fear that many had that we had slowed down too far is unwarranted.
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We seem to be continuing to defy these natural limits of the economic cycle and we should be able to push forward at a decent pace in the second half without risking inflation,
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Unfortunately, I don't think the news tomorrow morning will put smiles on any faces.
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If they have to ring some inflation out of the system, the initial list of victims has to include housing markets. You have a risky period for consumers for the next six to eight months.
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There are a lot of cross currents out there ... but overall the report suggests the job market is still doing pretty well.
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The pool of available labor is diminishing and worker efficiency is growing more slowly. This adds up to a higher level of pressure on wages, and, by inference, on inflation.
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Our guess is that long-term rates will begin to drift up later this year, albeit modestly.
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Outside of Detroit -- and outside of the gulf region -- there are signs that the economy is still doing very well.
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Frankly, I think that's healthy. Property has gotten so expensive, maybe people are getting a little bit of sticker shock.
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If anything, we may be at risk for underestimating how well the economy will do this year.
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We're nowhere near the same economy as we were in the 1970s. We're more service-based. We're much more energy efficient.