Callum Henderson
Callum Henderson
dollar extremely people political positive taiwan
The Taiwan dollar is extremely undervalued. Once short-term political distractions have dissipated, people will refocus on what is a pretty positive story.
dollar expect fed fully market percent pricing raise rates receive risk support
We expect the Fed to raise rates to 4.75 percent in March. The market isn't fully pricing this in, so it suggests a risk the dollar will receive support in the short-term.
albeit continue expect fed taiwan
We expect the CBC to continue to tighten, albeit slowly, even after the Fed stops. We like the Taiwan story a lot.
highs previous runs saw stops taken yesterday
We saw stops go out yesterday after the highs of the previous two runs were taken out.
asia continue few maybe
The sell-off in Asia will probably continue for a few more days, maybe another week.
appears architect happen japan knuckle moving retaining toward vote
What will probably happen is they will knuckle down and vote for reform. Things are getting better in Japan and the architect of that appears to be moving toward retaining power.
chancellor clarity currency degree downside form government pressure until
Obviously, the pressure will be on the downside of the currency until we get some degree of clarity on who is going to be a Chancellor and what form of government we are going to have in Germany.
belief coming dollar eventually gradually rally renewed strong weakness
It is our strong belief that the dollar rally is gradually coming to an end and that we will eventually see renewed dollar weakness in 2006.
elections expectation forward japan opposition post reasonable reforms sale win
The expectation is that Koizumi will win by a reasonable majority, that reforms will go forward and the opposition to the Japan Post sale will be crushed.
heightens next number policy positive raise row third
A third positive number in a row heightens expectations for the BOJ to raise policy next week. That will underpin the yen.
cheapest inevitably regain
The yen is the cheapest it has been for 20 years and will inevitably regain ground.
cap cheapest clear inevitably japan regain rise time warning
This is the first clear warning in a very long time by the U.S. that Japan should not cap the rise in the yen. The yen is the cheapest it has been for 20 years and will inevitably regain ground.
alone chinese currency reserve yuan
The Chinese yuan isn't a reserve currency at all, let alone 'the' reserve currency. We're a very long way away.
bank clearly imminent japan negative previous soon time
The GDP deflator suggests the Bank of Japan doesn't have to do anything any time soon and this is negative for the yen. Previous expectations for an imminent tightening were clearly premature.