Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
believe raise rates twice
I believe they are going to raise rates at least twice more after today.
easily headed job loss october rate
October job loss could easily be worse. The unemployment rate is headed for 6 percent, in our view.
august determine federal good interest month raise rates tale whether
That's really going to tell the tale of whether the (U.S. Federal Reserve) will raise interest rates or not. It will probably determine whether August is a good month (for stocks) or not.
august fed initial key path rate timing until
The path of the unemployment rate is the key to the timing of the Fed's initial tightening move. In our view, the Fed won't tighten until August at the soonest.
entirely initial rate rises
If the unemployment rate rises through July, as is entirely possible, the initial tightening will take place during the fall.
definitely economy economy-and-economics growth landing nearly percent prior rate soft viewed year
The economy is definitely making a transition. I think 1998 will be viewed as the year of soft landing when the economy went from a nearly 4 percent growth rate in the prior year, to just over 2 percent this year.
believe brings four increase rate stable
The increase in the unemployment rate, while very large, is really a catch-up, as the rate had been stable for four months. This brings the unemployment rate to where we believe it should be at this point.
fourth growth people picking quarter recovery signs since strongly suggest
And the signs since the fourth quarter suggest growth picking up in the first quarter more strongly than most people had anticipated. So I would say the recovery is here.
pay
Between you and me, you want to be the only one getting the pay raise, and not everyone else.
believe earnings next operating performance sector share snap tech worst year
Tech will have the worst performance of any S&P sector in 2001 with operating earnings per share plunging 73 percent. But next year (2002) we believe tech earnings will snap back strongly.
easily gains gradually job market percent support
As the job market gradually improves, it should easily support consumer-spending gains of at least 3.5 percent this year.
economic stay
We have to stay tuned for more economic data.
anytime expect fed late move occur summer unlikely
We don't expect the Fed to tighten anytime soon. The first tightening move is unlikely to occur before late summer at the very soonest.
cycle easing economy economy-and-economics expect fed hold showing signs
With the economy showing signs of life, the Fed easing cycle is probably at an end. We expect the Fed to hold steady.