Bill O'Grady
Bill O'Grady
assuming community continue hard push remain until
Will they continue to push the world community? We just don't know. Until we know, it's just really hard to tell what they'll do, assuming tensions remain high.
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The storm has moved over Florida, so we know for sure that it's not going to damage any energy facilities. The weather is still mild so heating demand has yet to pick up. The primary trend is still lower.
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Crude oil is the least of our worries. There is ample supply in storage and the government will tap the SPR, because this is what it is there for. They released supply last year when Hurricane Ivan struck the region.
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You have to have the world start doing better (before commodities prices correct), and the Asian crisis is starting to look a lot like what Latin America went through in the 1980s. It took them almost a decade to get their problems fixed.
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When you got over $3, you did see behavior change. That does seem to be the magic number, $3 to $3.50.
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The government has got to come up with a way in funding itself.
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Natural gas production is still constrained as a result of the hurricanes. Refinery capacity is constrained for the same reason. Europe has been cold as well, which could limit heating oil imports.
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Natural-gas prices peak in about the middle of December. That's because once you get past that point you begin to get a better feel for the idea that you're probably going to have enough gas to get through the season.
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Natural gas is the real worry. Unfortunately we can't import the missing production. This is largely a domestic market.
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It's kind of the first good news that we've had on the economy all week. It's a good number. But the problem with the number is it's really not indicative of the national number. It's the East Coast that's really suffering.
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It's in Hashimoto's best interest not to show his cards, ... but others vying for office can be bolder.
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The primary support factor today is the lift in crude. You also could be seeing more aggressive buying in heating oil.
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This is an election year and we're already deep into the silly season. The government has to figure out what it wants to do.
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We may be at the early stages of realizing that it is not being caused by the evil oil companies but that we do have a real energy crisis.