Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
businesses competition cruel economic flat growth hard prices profits showing statistics wages year
Many businesses see statistics showing economic growth as a cruel joke. Competition is still brutal, wages are still rising, prices are still flat or falling, and profits are as hard to find as they were a year ago.
fact future looks people prices
The fact that prices have come down makes people feel better and they think the future looks better.
affect amount context disappears energy happens huge interest national prices regardless sort statistics
Regardless of what happens to energy prices and interest rates, homebuilding is going to happen and that's going to affect the national statistics but not by a huge amount ... it sort of disappears in the context of the national economy.
against feared hurricane katrina looking odds oil price prove shock slow worry
Looking forward, we have Katrina and the price of oil to worry about. I think the odds are still against it, but Hurricane Katrina could prove to be the exogenous shock that we've feared could dramatically slow or even derail the expansion.
gas goes living oil price
If you're living on the edge, then when the price of gas and heating oil goes up, you end up over the edge.
crashed cut emergency evidence happened market panic rate treat yesterday
It would be kind of like when they put through a substantial emergency rate cut when the market crashed in 1987. I don't think it is evidence of panic to treat what happened yesterday as an emergency. It's an emergency on many levels.
road worst
The worst is over. We're on the road to recovery.
cause cents continue ease economy growing healthy inch inflation less might pressures rate rise wages worry
The rise in wages of 6 cents might cause jitters, but wage inflation is less of a worry now, especially with productivity still growing at a healthy clip. As the economy slows, the unemployment rate will continue to inch up and wage pressures should ease further.
bit lighter perhaps
Perhaps Santa's sleigh was a bit lighter than we thought.
elf full operating workshop
Santa's workshop will be operating pretty much at full capacity. There just probably won't be much elf overtime.
clear evidence next recovery though time
Even though there probably is a recovery in the pipeline, there isn't going to be any clear evidence of it by the time we get around to the next meeting.
awful dropped force people pulled though waiting work
Even though it's improving, there's still an awful lot of people who dropped out of work force and are waiting to be pulled back in.
later lever monetary policy possible rates sooner
Sooner or later rates will have to come back up to at least a 'neutral' level. But for now they've got the monetary policy lever just about where they want it, and it makes sense to do as little as possible for as long as possible.
momentum quite
Everything else suggests quite a lot of momentum in the economy.