Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
bets committed fed guessing january point raising rates
At this point I am guessing that the Fed is pretty committed to raising rates in January but after that all bets are off.
brakes earnings economy either employment fed greenspan growth higher inflation needs point sit slowing starting tap weak
Weak employment growth but higher hourly earnings point Greenspan and the Fed in two different directions. Either the economy is slowing down and the Fed needs to sit tight, or inflation is starting to take off and another tap on the brakes may be necessary.
adding businesses growing job market point profits
I think the job market is on a roll. Businesses are doing pretty well these days. Profits are growing nicely. I think businesses are at a point where they feel more comfortable adding people.
employment good heading jobs looking moment point rate sign start
The moment they think there are jobs there, they'll be out looking and the employment rate will start heading up again. I think that's on the whole a good sign at this point in the cycle.
burst capturing creative danger employers greenspan happening hidden kinds point provoke report sure suspicion wage ways
If there is a danger, it is that the report isn't capturing creative and hidden ways employers are boosting wages. I'm sure Greenspan has a sneaking suspicion that these kinds of things are happening and that they may at some point provoke a burst of wage inflation.
crashed cut emergency evidence happened market panic rate treat yesterday
It would be kind of like when they put through a substantial emergency rate cut when the market crashed in 1987. I don't think it is evidence of panic to treat what happened yesterday as an emergency. It's an emergency on many levels.
road worst
The worst is over. We're on the road to recovery.
cause cents continue ease economy growing healthy inch inflation less might pressures rate rise wages worry
The rise in wages of 6 cents might cause jitters, but wage inflation is less of a worry now, especially with productivity still growing at a healthy clip. As the economy slows, the unemployment rate will continue to inch up and wage pressures should ease further.
bit lighter perhaps
Perhaps Santa's sleigh was a bit lighter than we thought.
elf full operating workshop
Santa's workshop will be operating pretty much at full capacity. There just probably won't be much elf overtime.
clear evidence next recovery though time
Even though there probably is a recovery in the pipeline, there isn't going to be any clear evidence of it by the time we get around to the next meeting.
awful dropped force people pulled though waiting work
Even though it's improving, there's still an awful lot of people who dropped out of work force and are waiting to be pulled back in.
later lever monetary policy possible rates sooner
Sooner or later rates will have to come back up to at least a 'neutral' level. But for now they've got the monetary policy lever just about where they want it, and it makes sense to do as little as possible for as long as possible.
momentum quite
Everything else suggests quite a lot of momentum in the economy.