Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
backward becoming both confidence consumer data downward easing fed jobs losses slip spiral sustain worries
What worries me the most is a slip backward becoming a spiral downward. Jobs are the linchpin of both consumer confidence and consumer spending. We can't sustain many more losses like this without that downward spiral getting started. This is the kind of data that could make the Fed think about easing again.
developing inflation jobs market overall percent positive rise wages
I don't think it really suggests there is any inflation developing -- a 0.3 percent rise in wages is pretty manageable. But it's a pretty positive report; it suggests that the overall jobs market is pretty healthy.
add bit clearly continue feels job jobs market million move tight year
There is still a big backlog to be made up before it feels like a tight job market. Clearly it's a tighter job market than it was a year ago, and if we continue to add a million jobs a quarter, we'll move in that direction. But I think it will take a little bit of time.
cannot continue demand fact good growth happening jobs news translate workers
The good news for workers is that productivity growth cannot continue at this pace. Demand will translate into jobs very soon, and in fact I think it's happening right now.
added continue economy employment fuel gain higher jobs kicks labor last link market recovery slowly weakest
While the labor market may feel like the weakest link in the recovery, really it's the last link. As long as employment doesn't collapse, the recovery will continue to gain strength. As it does, slowly jobs will be added and they will be the fuel that kicks the economy into a higher gear.
coming jobs large looking number people seeing worth
You are seeing a large number of people coming out of the woodwork because there are jobs to be found. People are now looking for jobs because it is now worth looking.
absorb increase jobs labor month natural numbers order positive rate rather smaller takes
It takes something on the order of 150,000 new jobs a month to absorb the natural increase in the labor force. As long as we keep getting smaller positive numbers than that, the unemployment rate should be trending up rather than down.
absolutely economic greenspan growth jobs perfect pulling seemed signs soft
This is a perfect jobs report. Job growth slowed significantly and there are absolutely no signs of inflation. Greenspan may be pulling off what once seemed impossible: two soft landings in one economic expansion.
employment good heading jobs looking moment point rate sign start
The moment they think there are jobs there, they'll be out looking and the employment rate will start heading up again. I think that's on the whole a good sign at this point in the cycle.
jobs looking people worth
People are now looking for jobs because it is now worth looking.
contains dropped force given good hope jobs looking people rising signals work
Rising unemployment, ironically, contains good news. It signals people who had given up and dropped out of the work force are back looking for jobs. Clearly, they have hope there are jobs to be found.
chance definitely hike jobs june looks percent rate report strong
I'd say there's only a 25 percent chance of a rate hike in June even. Even with another strong jobs report Friday, they'll want to have something that looks more definitely like a trend.
businesses growth hiring improve increase increases jobs month per population rate roughly situation takes truly until work
The unemployment situation won't truly improve until businesses increase hiring a lot more than they did in February. It takes roughly 150,000 new jobs per month just to keep the unemployment rate steady, as population growth increases the work force.
crashed cut emergency evidence happened market panic rate treat yesterday
It would be kind of like when they put through a substantial emergency rate cut when the market crashed in 1987. I don't think it is evidence of panic to treat what happened yesterday as an emergency. It's an emergency on many levels.