Bernard Baumohl
Bernard Baumohl
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The latest batch of economic news does not paint a very encouraging picture on the sustainability of consumer spending.
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Bond traders are concerned that the economy may be growing too fast, given where we are in the business cycle.
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With household finances already under considerable stress, one has to wonder if another round of rate hikes will lead to a more severe cutback in consumer spending.
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When consumers are burdened with heavy debt loads, rising interest rates, higher energy costs, no personal savings and household income growth that falls below inflation, something had to give.
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One has to wonder if another round of rate hikes will lead to a more severe cutback in consumer spending.
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The sharp pullback in economic growth during the final three months of 2005 shows the law of gravity has not been repealed. When consumers are burdened with heavy debt loads, rising interest rates, higher energy costs, no personal savings and household income growth that falls below inflation, something had to give. This retrenchment in spending was generally foreseen, though economists weren't sure on the timing and magnitude.
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The stress on household finances in coming weeks will be the greatest since the last recession in 2001,
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The tech industry is creating its own shakeout,
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On the other hand, Greenspan seems satisfied that his tightening has had a lasting effect. He's likely to stand pat for the rest of the year.
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It's fairly safe to say that the trade deficit may have peaked now that oil prices are falling and the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down.
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This is the latest sign that the economy is slowing down, and because these are labor numbers, they're going to have particular weight with the Fed. This is the kind of news that could take some of the uncertainty out of the markets and get stocks going up again.
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If you take a snapshot of the economy right now, you could certainly say that we're in a sweet spot.
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Housing prices in many communities will appreciate less rapidly --- and in some communities actually fall. This reduces the wealth effect from real estate assets, shrinks home equity borrowing, and increases pressure on households to replenish their savings.
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With borrowing costs on the rise and the wealth effect from real estate assets diminishing, something has to give.