Bernard Baumohl
Bernard Baumohl
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The sharp pullback in economic growth during the final three months of 2005 shows the law of gravity has not been repealed. When consumers are burdened with heavy debt loads, rising interest rates, higher energy costs, no personal savings and household income growth that falls below inflation, something had to give. This retrenchment in spending was generally foreseen, though economists weren't sure on the timing and magnitude.
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Bond traders are concerned that the economy may be growing too fast, given where we are in the business cycle.
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It's fairly safe to say that the trade deficit may have peaked now that oil prices are falling and the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down.
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There is a real sense of foreboding about the economy now that Katrina has struck with full force. This storm will be the most devastating ever for the U.S. oil and refining industries.
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This is the latest sign that the economy is slowing down, and because these are labor numbers, they're going to have particular weight with the Fed. This is the kind of news that could take some of the uncertainty out of the markets and get stocks going up again.
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Our imports increase as long as the economy grows. But there's certainly a concern that our exports are down despite the fact that Asian and European economies have begun to rebound. Maintaining the high deficit is dangerous because that means a huge debt, and if our creditors lose confidence in the U.S. economy and begin selling dollars, which drives down the value of the currency, that could spark a serious inflation threat.
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Our imports increase as long as the economy grows,
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Katrina has shaken the very foundations of the U.S. economic expansion when it ruined much of America's energy infrastructure, ... While a recession is unlikely, the probability of stagflation has greatly increased with inflation moving higher even as the economy slows.
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If you take a snapshot of the economy right now, you could certainly say that we're in a sweet spot.
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The economy is generating plenty of jobs -- that's good news.
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A miscalculation in interest rate policy could damage the economy and force the Fed to reverse course later in the year by giving back one or two rate hikes.
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The stress on household finances in coming weeks will be the greatest since the last recession in 2001,
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The tech industry is creating its own shakeout,
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When consumers are burdened with heavy debt loads, rising interest rates, higher energy costs, no personal savings and household income growth that falls below inflation, something had to give.