Arnie Berman
Arnie Berman
happen recovery second stocks technology
Technology stocks were grossly oversold going into this. The recovery in fundamentals won't happen all at once, but it will get under way in the second quarter.
basis history longer possibilities stocks technology valued
Technology stocks that were once valued on a price-to-possibilities basis are now valued as if history no longer matters,
currently dire nearly prices stock technology
nearly as dire as technology stock prices currently reflect.
attractive bond companies debt equipment market present publicly rally relative sector sending signal technology traded
The outsize rally in the publicly traded debt for companies in this sector suggests that the bond market is sending a signal that the communications equipment sub-sector is particularly attractive at present relative to other technology sub-sectors,
associated best delivering downside earlier growth industry intel news pc positive rest returned surprises technology tends upside
A lot of the best news is associated with the PC industry. Intel has been not just a bellwether in the sense that it's big, but in the sense that technology as an industry has returned to positive year-over-year growth rates, and technology as an industry tends to be delivering more upside surprises than downside surprises these days. Intel started to do that earlier and more substantially than the rest of technology.
easiest follows recovery simple spending technology
Any technology spending recovery follows a simple principle: things that are easiest to do without come back last,
clearly companies decisions forced investors sector technology
Companies in the technology sector are clearly overcapitalized and they are going to be increasingly forced by investors to make decisions about their cash,
basis capital companies cyclical fact faster good investing overall pace rate recover sound spending technology terribly
How these companies sound isn't a terribly good basis for investing right now, ... The fact is that in an incremental cyclical recovery, capital spending will recover at a brisker pace than the overall recovery, and technology spending will recover at a faster rate than capital spending.
brutal chose company example ibm lower missed number quarter results spending technology whose worse
The first quarter was so brutal for technology spending that even IBM missed the number and chose to lower the bar. But here you have an example of a company that's very big and whose results were not, in any respect, worse than expected.
best business capacity count economic economy-and-economics expansion head latter leaders less questions recovery rising stage start starting technology thinking
The latter stage of an economic recovery, where head count is rising and productivity is starting to fall, is the best for technology spending, and that's where we will be in 2006. Business leaders start thinking more about technology and less about questions like capacity expansion or how long the recovery will last.
concerns market rest
Techs are being impacted by the same concerns that the rest of the market is,
boring fourth losers people stuff
At this point, boring makes for an interesting fourth quarter. I think this year's losers win. The stuff that people chucked from their portfolios is what they will want back.
activity bond companies equipment market money providers scared service signal spending start
Consolidation activity is actually a signal that service providers are scared and will start spending money again. Equipment companies are long-term beneficiaries of this and frankly, I think that's what the bond market is smelling out,
belief confused people somewhat tech unilateral
There's no unilateral belief about tech stocks. People are confused and somewhat justifiably.