Anthony Cordesman
Anthony Cordesman
Anthony H. Cordesmanholds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studiesand is a national security analyst on a number of global conflicts...
almost certain coalition efforts forces growing inclusive iraqi reach reality
The reality is that if the Shi'ites and Kurds can be inclusive and if they can reach a settlement with most of the Iraqi Sunnis, then the efforts of U.S. and coalition forces and the growing Iraqi forces are almost certain to be successful,
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Iraq might be a far easier opponent than its force strengths indicate. But it also is potentially a very serious military opponent indeed,
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The best thing we can do is to make sure that our training helps them to create truly national military forces and truly national police forces because that then takes away any sense that one needs militias to provide security.
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And to be perfectly blunt, I think only fools would bet the lives of other men's sons and daughters on their own arrogance and call this force a cakewalk or a speed bump or something that you can dismiss.
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These are scarcely people you want to integrate into a national force. This would simply create sectarian or ethnic forces or divisions within the forces that already exist.
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There's so much spin in these numbers. A lot of facts get disguised. . . . Total manpower is meaningless. The army is the key force in direct combat.
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How much of the battle space can the Iraqi forces take over, and who is actually doing the fighting - those are the key measurements. The measure cannot be the elimination of the insurgency, as desirable as that would be. You cannot eliminate all of the bombings.
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This was a largely punitive operation. It did not cripple any of Saddam's capabilities.
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We did not plan three years ago to create more than token Iraqi forces. Now we're at 230,000 roughly and counting. Our whole strategy is dependent on the success of the Iraqi army and the Iraqi police.
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Everything I know about counterterrorism is, you deal with specific cells.
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Even if the constitution clearly wins acceptance by most Shiites and Kurds and some Sunnis, this is only the start of a process, not the end. Even the best outcome of the vote is the prelude to months and years of additional effort.
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I would call it a show of words.
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On a day-to-day basis, the overall level of security is obviously low. We can't secure the airport road, can't stop the incoming into the Green Zone, can't stop the killings and kidnappings,
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Obviously every time you get a weakening of the coalition, it highlights the lack of international support for the U.S. mission.