Anirvan Banerji
Anirvan Banerji
declare despite eagerness general growth nowhere patch return robust soft
Despite the general eagerness to declare that the soft patch is behind, the return to robust growth is nowhere in sight.
firm growth wage
Wage growth is firm but it's not that elevated.
ease firm growth likely modestly quite unlikely
Growth is more likely to firm modestly from here and it's quite unlikely to ease much further.
consumer economy four impact likely might oil prices slammed though trigger vulnerable window
Four years ago, the economy was in a very vulnerable state. Right now, the economy's window of vulnerability has slammed shut. Even though oil prices might have some impact on consumer spending, it's not likely to trigger a new downturn.
asks central curve issue means record today whether yield
Mr. Greenspan's 'conundrum' is a central issue here and asks whether the yield curve today means what it used to mean. Even if it does mean what it used to, the record is still pretty patchy anyway.
economy knock lined recession shocks
There are times when the economy is resilient. In all of the shocks where recession resulted, it's like things were lined up like dominos -- you knock one down and they all come down. This is not one of those times.
actual economy gentle push quite tip
There are times when the economy is quite vulnerable, so a gentle push (from oil) can tip the economy into actual recession.
clear conclusion growth pickup quite sign sustained time
We're not in trouble. But at the same time it's quite clear that there is no sign of a sustained pickup in growth in sight. Our conclusion is don't worry, don't be happy.
downs job payroll ups
We've had ups and downs in payroll job growth. The month-to-month gyration is inevitable.
admit beyond gets good growth half honest maybe ought
We have a pretty good idea (that growth will slow) for the first half and maybe through the summer. Beyond that, we ought to be honest and admit that it gets fuzzy.
half outlook recession second sign
The outlook for the second half is shakier -- but we do not see any sign of recession here.
chinese costs food material passed raw rise rising situation
We are in a situation where we have rising raw material prices, which are very important in China, and a rise in food prices, which are important to Chinese laborers. That's inflationary, and these costs are being passed around.
inflation time turn
There will be a time when inflation will turn around.
average boiling bucket foot ice inflation perfectly
If you have one foot in a bucket of ice and another in a bucket of boiling water, on average you're perfectly comfortable. In that sense, we're very comfortable with inflation right now.