Andy Xie
Andy Xie
Andy Xieis an independent economist based in Shanghai, and the former Morgan Stanley star chief Asia-Pacific economist famous for his contrarian and provocative views. He left Morgan Stanley abruptly in October 2006 when an internal email that he penned was leaked. He derided Singapore as a money laundering centre for Indonesia, and the ASEAN group of nations as a failure...
both china clear country developed developing economies meantime performing result saves spends states trade united
China is a developing country that saves too much, and the United States is a developed country that spends too much. The result is a big trade gap. Does something have to give? Yes. But it's not clear when that will happen, and in the meantime both economies are performing pretty well.
assets boon both chinese economic european football games instantly liquid money overseas source trillion
Overseas Chinese control, by my estimate, $2 trillion of liquid assets that can be mobilized instantly to punt on anything from European football games to Shanghai property. This source of money is both the boon and the bane of China's economic development.
access allowed became both bypass city economies global large neighbors rest rich stage trying
The two city economies became rich by being the gateways to the rest of the world for their large neighbors. However, globalization has allowed their neighbors to bypass them and access the global stage directly. Both are trying to get back into the game, but in different ways.
boom disneyland opening prolong year
The opening of Disneyland this year could prolong the boom for another two years.
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This should not be surprising after the exceptionally strong growth of the past three years, following China's entry into the WTO,
economy grown lending pace reason
The reason why the economy has grown at this pace is because of the banks' lending terms. If they don't want to economy to grow so much, they need to tighten their lending terms.
knows
We're going down to the bottom. No one knows where that is.
adjustment decline either percent prices property recession several slow
Either you have a big adjustment like a 20 percent or 30 percent decline, or you have a big recession or you have a slow decline in property prices or several years of no growth.
riding scared tiger
The government's riding a tiger and they are scared of getting off.
capital economies market relative sector telling tiger
What the market is telling the Tiger economies is that they have too much capital in their tradeable sector relative to their competitiveness.
based capital demand depends excessive fund future india investment optimism poorer version
China's investment demand is based on excessive optimism about the future. India depends on capital inflow to fund its consumption-led growth, like a poorer version of the U.S.
education government receive schools system
China's education system is a no man's land. Schools have too much autonomy, they receive government funding, but they are not monitored.
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China has built up massive capacity for processing commodities. The sunk cost inside China has made it more vulnerable to price squeezing pressure in the commodity market.
china game generating positive region sum
China competitiveness is generating a positive sum game in the region for now.