Alfred Kugel
Alfred Kugel
bad beating drums earnings energy helped higher market quite worrying
have been beating the drums about worrying about higher inflation, and so far, other than energy, we haven't had higher inflation. (But) I would say earnings are doing quite well, so I think that's helped to keep the market from having another bad week.
cut fed guess market next path perverse report weak
I would guess this will be another weak report and that, I think, will keep the Fed on its path of easing, ... In a perverse way, the market will like it because they'll think the Fed will make another cut at the next FOMC meeting.
changed earnings estimates forward inflation interest low market present quite rates ratio relative stock stocks
We've now changed the valuation of the stock market quite a bit, ... If anything, the earnings estimates have been going up and stocks have been going down. The price-to-earnings ratio on forward earnings is now down to about 15 times, which is very low relative to interest rates and inflation at the present time.
market overdone performed stocks tech technology year
You really have a two-tier market with tech stocks going down and everything else going up. Part of this is because valuations in technology stocks got overdone this year and, at the same time, the Dow hadn't performed and now they look cheap.
changed market psychology
This changed the whole psychology of the market from one of disappointment to one of optimism.
direction generally happen market oil opposite prices tend today
Generally the market will tend to go in the opposite direction of oil prices and sometimes oil shares, but that didn't happen today yet.
demand far interest low market problem products rates worldwide
The fundamentals are still there. We have low inflation, low interest rates and a worldwide demand for American products I don't think you have a problem as far as the market going up.
buying cautious fund hurricane katrina managers market quiet stance took
The market has done pretty well this week. I think the fund managers that took a more cautious stance after Hurricane Katrina may be doing a little buying now, but it's a quiet day.
coming earnings percent
Earnings are coming in 'in line' with expectations. We should still be up 15 percent year-over-year and that's better than we did in the first half.
concerns immediate moment
At the moment there are no concerns on the immediate horizon.
couple cross currents difficult fact fed inflation investors next people pick policy proper slowing
We have a lot of cross currents right now and so it's very difficult for investors to pick out the proper path. People like myself think that things are in fact slowing down some, that inflation is not a significant problem, and that while the Fed may tighten policy once in the next couple of months, they really probably don't need to.
coming companies earnings financial flat people strong trend worried yield
People were worried the financial companies wouldn't have a strong earnings trend because of the flat yield curve, but now it's been flat for a while, and the earnings are still coming through.
durable economic since
Since we don't have a lot of economic data, the most important will be durable goods.
breakup decline last negative positive removal stocks tech threat
This was a big psychological negative and I think it was one of those things that triggered off the decline in tech stocks last summer. So the removal of the threat of breakup is a positive psychological thing.