Alan Skrainka
Alan Skrainka
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I think people placed bets today based on (the data). By buying stocks today, you are assuming we won't get bad news tomorrow.
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What you have going on in this market is a flight to quality, which is the blue chips, as tech stocks are priced to perfection.
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Over the last six years, we have experienced the largest drop in price/earnings ratios in the history of the U.S. stock market, going back to 1871. 2006 has the potential to be a great year for stock investors.
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Albertson's is truly a value stock, the third-largest grocery chain, with a very stable predictable business with 29 years of higher earnings. The stock was really clobbered since they announced a merger last year that didn't quite work out. But it's still a wonderful company, at 10 times earnings.
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The valuation gap between old economy stocks and new economy stocks is getting wider and wider. To me, it's like a rubber band. You can only stretch it so far and eventually it's going to snap back.
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I think the performance gap between the new-economy and old-economy stocks is like a rubber band; it seems to be snapping the other way. The new economy sounds very exciting, but you're still going to need food, medicine and electricity to survive.
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Small business owners have a great stake not only in what's going on in the stock market, but what's happening in the overall economy as a result.
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The easiest thing is to be bullish when the market is rising and bearish when the market is falling. But as we all know, that's not how to make money in the stock market.
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We feel we can do a service to our customers if we just get the overall trend right. We don't really practice technical analysis or try to guess the price points next week. But the trend does look like it's higher, because the Fed now is probably shifting into neutral earnings are very strong. And because the Fed acted promptly they ensured we would have another year of solid growth next year. That is what the market is anticipating.
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We think, in the short run, psychology drives the market but in the long run, fundamentals drive the market. We see very low inflation and no inflationary pressures. We think, going forward, expectations have come back down in line with fundamentals and we won't have the pressure of Fed rate hikes over the next 12 months.
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The signs of slowing are few and far between. I think it's really the data between now and (the next meeting) that will determine whether it will be a quarter percentage or half percentage point hike but I think it would be confusing not to raise (rates).
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They already made an investment decision prior to the rule change being official.
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The word for 2001 is look for opportunities. There are problems in the economy but they have gotten aggressive responses from policy makers.
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Earnings have been fantastic. Any weakness in the market you've got to attribute to (the) rising interest-rate environment.