Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
above consistent economic growth numbers payroll
Non-farm payroll numbers of over 300,000 are pretty much consistent with economic growth of about 4 percent, (and) that's way above trend,
bought found good inflation lucky numbers officials position rate time
I think (Fed officials have) found that they're in a lucky position where the inflation numbers are good enough that it's bought them some time (to postpone rate hikes),
below headline jobs looking maybe numbers obviously plenty scratch sector slightly stronger weakness
Some of the headline (jobs) numbers maybe look slightly stronger than expected, but when you scratch below the surface, you find there is still plenty of weakness out there, ... Obviously the manufacturing sector is looking as weak as ever.
earnings fear front numbers obviously running soft sway wage
The hourly earnings numbers are soft obviously in January, but if you look at it on a three-month trend, in fact, you still find hourly earnings running at something like a 5-percent annualized rate. So I don't think that's going to sway the Fed's fear on the wage front completely.
bond broader confused cross influences stick trend view
These cross influences are confused enough that one has to stick with the broader trend that we still view as bond negative.
caught market minutes somewhat
These minutes have caught the market somewhat off-guard,
below data decent dominated employment october rising services since soft tend third time trends weakness
Employment slipped for the third time since November, and is now back below October levels, ... Since weakness in services employment has dominated the soft employment trends in this cycle, this data will tend to deflate rising expectations of a decent payrolls number.
adding consumer either energy far goods producer quite rather sign
Quite clearly, energy is still adding to consumer prices, but everything else is rather subdued, ... As far as goods are concerned, either at the consumer or producer level, their is no sign of inflation.
assessment doubt impact profound region risk
There should be no doubt that instability in the region should have a profound impact on the long-term risk assessment globally.
attention clearly data dollar expect fed giving market quickly shift
While the data is clearly dollar positive, I would expect that the market will quickly shift back to the attention it is giving to Fed policy.
feels fresh require
It feels to me it will require something fresh to really get it going again.
change dollar fact guard mere per presidents seen snow
I don't think per se jettisoning Snow would be seen as dollar negative. The mere fact that we've got a change of guard isn't necessarily dollar negative. These things happen. Presidents do change personnel.
believe giving people pressure selling stand underlying
I don't think people want to stand in the way of this even if they believe there's underlying value. With equities giving it a kick, you're getting more selling pressure as well.
clearly consistent data decline employment meaningful michigan poor trends
Poor employment trends clearly are weighing on sentiment, ... The (IBD) data is consistent with a meaningful decline in the Michigan survey.