Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
change generate language likely pace slower speeding
We read any change in language as more likely to generate a slower pace of tightening than a speeding up in tightening to 50-basis-point increments.
change dollar fact guard mere per presidents seen snow
I don't think per se jettisoning Snow would be seen as dollar negative. The mere fact that we've got a change of guard isn't necessarily dollar negative. These things happen. Presidents do change personnel.
asset change surprise
Would it surprise me that they would change their whole asset allocation dramatically? That would be more surprising.
asset caught changed fairly far fed felt market markets obvious reaction sharp shock testimony value
There was always going to be some shock value when the Fed changed 'the considerable period' statement, but we had always felt that the change would come when it was fairly obvious that it should, and when the Fed had softened the blow, by alerting the market to such a change, ... As it was, there was no such warning, and the sharp market reaction is testimony to just how far it caught asset markets 'off-side.'
change size
There's a sense that the world is changing, no question. But it's the size of the change that matters.
change changes measured weak
For the Fed, I don't think it changes much. It's not weak enough that it would change their measured tightening path.
data direction fed funds peak trying weaker work
We're trying to feel out where's the peak in the Fed funds rate. The data has tended to work in the direction of a weaker dollar.
bond higher might pattern provide resolved terms trading
To some extent, the bond market's trading pattern has not been resolved of late. This might provide some resolution, and I think it is going to be resolved in terms of higher yields,
above economy head higher hikes inflation makers offset oil peek policy pressures price raising reacting situation slow starting time until
Up until recently, oil price hikes have offset disinflation. This time around, we're in a situation where inflation is starting to peek its head above the parapet, and policy makers will see it more as an inflation threat. That's problematic -- if they have to start reacting to higher inflation pressures by raising rates, that does slow the economy down.
above consistent economic growth numbers payroll
Non-farm payroll numbers of over 300,000 are pretty much consistent with economic growth of about 4 percent, (and) that's way above trend,
clearly consistent data decline employment meaningful michigan poor trends
Poor employment trends clearly are weighing on sentiment, ... The (IBD) data is consistent with a meaningful decline in the Michigan survey.
bond concern fed growth happened higher imposed inflation lower setting terms top weaker
My concern is that what's happened here is that inflation is higher than the Fed anticipated. On top of that, the kind of tightening already imposed by the markets, in terms of lower equities and higher bond yields, is setting up weaker growth in 2005.
bullets cut fed fire gut left next percentage says therefore
My gut says the Fed doesn't have too many bullets left to fire, and therefore they have to use them sparingly, and we'll see a (quarter percentage point) cut at the next meeting.
black carries inflation less likely policy problem risk targeting
The problem with inflation targeting is that it carries with it a risk of less flexibility at times, and that could be problematical. But it also makes policy less of a black box, so policy is likely to be more transparent.