Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
change dollar fact guard mere per presidents seen snow
I don't think per se jettisoning Snow would be seen as dollar negative. The mere fact that we've got a change of guard isn't necessarily dollar negative. These things happen. Presidents do change personnel.
change generate language likely pace slower speeding
We read any change in language as more likely to generate a slower pace of tightening than a speeding up in tightening to 50-basis-point increments.
asset change surprise
Would it surprise me that they would change their whole asset allocation dramatically? That would be more surprising.
change size
There's a sense that the world is changing, no question. But it's the size of the change that matters.
asset caught changed fairly far fed felt market markets obvious reaction sharp shock testimony value
There was always going to be some shock value when the Fed changed 'the considerable period' statement, but we had always felt that the change would come when it was fairly obvious that it should, and when the Fed had softened the blow, by alerting the market to such a change, ... As it was, there was no such warning, and the sharp market reaction is testimony to just how far it caught asset markets 'off-side.'
change changes measured weak
For the Fed, I don't think it changes much. It's not weak enough that it would change their measured tightening path.
bond broader confused cross influences stick trend view
These cross influences are confused enough that one has to stick with the broader trend that we still view as bond negative.
caught market minutes somewhat
These minutes have caught the market somewhat off-guard,
below data decent dominated employment october rising services since soft tend third time trends weakness
Employment slipped for the third time since November, and is now back below October levels, ... Since weakness in services employment has dominated the soft employment trends in this cycle, this data will tend to deflate rising expectations of a decent payrolls number.
adding consumer either energy far goods producer quite rather sign
Quite clearly, energy is still adding to consumer prices, but everything else is rather subdued, ... As far as goods are concerned, either at the consumer or producer level, their is no sign of inflation.
assessment doubt impact profound region risk
There should be no doubt that instability in the region should have a profound impact on the long-term risk assessment globally.
attention clearly data dollar expect fed giving market quickly shift
While the data is clearly dollar positive, I would expect that the market will quickly shift back to the attention it is giving to Fed policy.
feels fresh require
It feels to me it will require something fresh to really get it going again.
believe giving people pressure selling stand underlying
I don't think people want to stand in the way of this even if they believe there's underlying value. With equities giving it a kick, you're getting more selling pressure as well.