Alan Gin
Alan Gin
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What I don't see is a collapse in pricing. To get a collapse ... there would have to be a big job loss where people are forced to put their houses on the market for distress sales.
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With less appreciation, consumers will be less able to tap into home equity loans to finance their purchases, which could put a damper on the national economy.
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Things are booming a little bit in terms of job quality. In the past, I've been a little worried ... that most of the job growth has occurred in lower-paying sectors. But recently, there has been a lot of growth in professional services.
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Businesses which import products into San Diego also are impacted.
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One of the reasons we had the housing market surging ahead was because of the low cost of borrowing money. With mortgage interests rates going up there is some concern some people will be priced out of the market, which in turn will reduce demand for housing ... That leads to lower prices.
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More than 30 percent of the job growth is in leisure and hospitality, and those jobs are not high paying. So there is a little bit of a worry about job quality.
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To the extent that the architectural or engineering services are connected to home construction, they could slow down more in the future.
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The number of home sales is down, price appreciation on most homes is not as great as it used to be, and it's taking longer to sell homes. That could mean less growth in construction work.
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They took a sharper run up in prices, so it makes sense that there's a decrease there. Some people have been priced out of the housing market, but others are waiting.
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Almost everywhere I go, people ask me if we're in a housing bubble here in San Diego. My answer is yes, but the bubble isn't going to burst.
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There might be some seasonal reasons for the construction losses, but the decline could be a sign that our overall employment growth is slowing.
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People are now spending this money on gas when they could have been spending it on going out to movies or going out to eat or buying clothes.
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I think it shows that the market here is softening a little bit. San Diego was advancing more rapidly than other places and we may be topping out first.
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If we see a slowing there, it could pull the entire economy down a bit. I don't think it will pull us into a recession, but the pace of growth could slow considerably.