Alan Gin
Alan Gin
almost answer ask bubble everywhere housing people san
Almost everywhere I go, people ask me if we're in a housing bubble here in San Diego. My answer is yes, but the bubble isn't going to burst.
connected extent home services slow
To the extent that the architectural or engineering services are connected to home construction, they could slow down more in the future.
appreciation consumers equity finance home less loans national tap
With less appreciation, consumers will be less able to tap into home equity loans to finance their purchases, which could put a damper on the national economy.
ahead borrowing concern cost demand housing interests leads low lower market mortgage people rates reasons reduce turn
One of the reasons we had the housing market surging ahead was because of the low cost of borrowing money. With mortgage interests rates going up there is some concern some people will be priced out of the market, which in turn will reduce demand for housing ... That leads to lower prices.
businesses diego products san
Businesses which import products into San Diego also are impacted.
bit growth high job jobs leisure percent worry
More than 30 percent of the job growth is in leisure and hospitality, and those jobs are not high paying. So there is a little bit of a worry about job quality.
buying eat gas money movies people spending
People are now spending this money on gas when they could have been spending it on going out to movies or going out to eat or buying clothes.
advancing diego market places rapidly san shows
I think it shows that the market here is softening a little bit. San Diego was advancing more rapidly than other places and we may be topping out first.
economy entire growth pace pull slow slowing
If we see a slowing there, it could pull the entire economy down a bit. I don't think it will pull us into a recession, but the pace of growth could slow considerably.
agree drastic employment nearly slowing
I agree that employment is slowing down, but I don't think it will be nearly as drastic as they're forecasting.
collapse distress forced houses job loss market people
What I don't see is a collapse in pricing. To get a collapse ... there would have to be a big job loss where people are forced to put their houses on the market for distress sales.
california generally good news rest san terms
Generally good news in terms of San Diego, we will outperform California and the rest of the nation.
bit booming growth job occurred terms worried
Things are booming a little bit in terms of job quality. In the past, I've been a little worried ... that most of the job growth has occurred in lower-paying sectors. But recently, there has been a lot of growth in professional services.
decline employment growth might overall reasons sign
There might be some seasonal reasons for the construction losses, but the decline could be a sign that our overall employment growth is slowing.